Natural gas prices posted a second straight week of losses heading into Independence Day, with bearish fundamentals and resistance above $3.50 in August futures capping recent rallies. Last week's 55 Bcf storage injection — the smallest since April — signaled tightening balances but still came in above expectations and outpaced the same week last year. Power burn lagged 2024 levels despite similar weather, pointing to price-driven demand destruction and a continued shift in the generation mix toward solar.
Domestic production remains strong and slightly improved, while LNG feed gas flows are rebounding as Sabine Pass ramps back up. Storage builds remain robust enough that we now see a plausible path to 3.9–4.0 Tcf by winter, which would likely pressure the current premium embedded in the winter 2025–26 strip.
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