NYMEX natural gas futures ended the day mixed, with the November 2026 prompt-month contract settling higher on the day, while futures for delivery for the subsequent 24 months declined. November 2026 settled down nearly $0.04 to end the session at $3.24 per MMBtu, while the full winter strip (November - March) fell by $0.03 to close at $3.39.
The front end of the forward curve was bolstered by the EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (Link), which showed a smaller-than-expected build into underground inventories for the week ending October 9. Additionally, the Force Majeure on the TCO pipeline that was announced yesterday appears to be impacting production volumes based on daily estimates derived from pipeline nominations.
The market seems to be looking beyond the temporary tightening of the supply/demand balance however, choosing to focus on near-term weather forecasts. The current 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the National Weather Service (below) show above-normal temperatures are expected for the eastern half of the U.S. through the end of October. With every day that passes, temperature forecast maps that look like those below will carry an increasingly bearish impact as they suggest a sluggish start to the heating season and below-normal natural gas demand.
An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.