Natural Gas Market Note | 10.29.2025

November gains back steep early day losses to trade slightly higher into expiry.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

Today marked the expiration of the November 2025 NYMEX futures contract, which rolled off the board at $3.376 per MMBtu. This marked the highest contract expiration since April and the highest November delivery since 2022. With 11 months now in the books, the average for Calendar 2025 edged higher to $3.336 per MMBtu, which is more than 50% higher than the same 11 months in 2024.

Prices had been down sharply on the day, but the market recovered this afternoon into November’s expiration. While that contract finished the day 3 cents higher, the rest of the curve posted losses, with balance of winter continuing the downtrend that has been in place over the past week.

December is set to roll onto the front of the curve at a premium tomorrow, with that contract currently trading just below $3.80 per MMBtu. January 2026 is still holding above $4.05 per MMBtu but is down sharply from Monday’s intraday high near $4.38 per MMBtu.

Tomorrow’s storage report is expected to show a build of 73 Bcf, according to The Wall Street Journal survey. The previous week saw a build of 87 Bcf, so if the survey proves correct, it would imply a 2-Bcf-per-day tightening of the fundamental balance due primarily to rising residential and commercial needs. Survey responses ranged from builds of 65 to 79 Bcf. Inventory growth should slow dramatically in subsequent reports, but stocks look poised to potentially continue building into the first week or two of November.

Forecasts call for warmer than normal temperatures across every region of the country except the East Coast in both the 6-10 and 8-14-day periods. We’ve seen these outlooks trending generally warmer this week, continuing to put pressure on forward pricing through the upcoming season.

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