Power Market Update | 11.27.2024
Power markets brace for the first cold snap of the winter after wrapping up a very mild November.
**The Weekly Video Update will return next week. All of us at The Energy Buyer’s Guide wish all of our readers a very happy Thanksgiving.
Major U.S. electricity markets are bracing for an upcoming cold snap that will push up demand and very likely spot natural gas and electricity prices. The first cold snap of the season is expected to push overnight lows below freezing for nearly all of the Lower 48. Weather forecasting models vary on which day will represent peak cold from a Population-Weighted Heating Degree Day (HDD) perspective, with some pointing to Saturday, November 30 as peak cold while others suggest the coldest day could occur on Monday, December 2.
The current minimum temperature forecast maps for each day from the National Weather Service are below:
PJM, the county’s largest power market, is showing elevated load in their 7-day load forecast with Tuesday, December 3 expected to show the highest peak demand at nearly 120,000 MW - a level last reached in late September. Moreover, PJM’s hourly load forecast is exhibiting the winter “double peak” demand curve for December 3 & 4, indicating morning electric space heating will be a major demand driver during those operating days.
Detailed U.S. Power Generation Mix Charts in the PDF Below:
Power Market Headlines & Helpful Links:
Current Weather and Near-Term Forecast (National Weather Service) - Link
U.S. Solar Additions Set to Have Record Year (S&P Global) - Link
New York Grid Operator Warns of Undersupply in 2033 (Reuters) - Link
NYISO 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA) (NYISO) - Link
NYISO Podcast Discussing the 2024 RNA (NYISO) - Link
