Natural Gas Market Note | 11.24.2025
Prices begin the holiday-shortened week on a down note.
Natural gas futures were lower to start the week, with the December contract remaining relatively strong compared to the rest of the winter strip. The market opened sharply lower coming out of the weekend, but ultimately found footing overnight and ended up finishing the day well above the Sunday-evening lows. The prompt-month December contract finished 3 cents below Friday’s settlement, while the full Balance-of-Winter strip was off by $0.06 per MMBtu. Summer 2026 saw slimmer losses, while deliveries further out the curve remained relatively quiet.
Weather models shifted warmer over the weekend only to revert to relatively unchanged from where the market left off on Friday. The outlook is still calling for a major pattern shift later this week, with population-weighted heating degree days (HDDs) peaking on Friday the 28th. Temperatures will then moderate closer to normal for a few days before the expected onset of more sustained cold anomalies into mid-December.
Estimated domestic production hit new all-time record highs over the weekend, with volumes exceeding 110 Bcf per day. This could be a positive sign for end users heading into the winter if the trend continues, as added supply would further cushion the market from rising LNG exports and the looming possibility of a colder-than-normal season. However, it should be noted that these estimates are still preliminary and optimism should remain cautious.
Natural Gas Production
This week’s EIA storage report will be released a day early on Wednesday at 12pm Eastern due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Early indications point to a return of net injections, with a small build near 10 Bcf indicated by supply & demand models for the week ended November 21. The injection would build onto the surplus to the five-year average and narrow the slim deficit to year-ago storage, which show 25-Bcf and 2-Bcf draws, respectively.
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