Natural Gas Market Note | 11.18.2025

Prices end flat after clawing back early losses.

The NYMEX natural gas curve finished Tuesday virtually flat across the board. Prices were sharply lower - especially near the front of the curve - earlier in the day, but began turning back to the upside midday and ultimately finished near yesterday’s close. Deliveries through the remainder of winter are still trading well off of last week’s highs but are up significantly compared to month-ago levels.

Intraday price swings continue to be informed by even slight changes weather model runs. Today saw the forecast for the 8-14-day period continue to progress a bit cooler, although current outlooks show the most significant cold remaining to the west of key population centers in the Upper Midwest and along the East Coast.

While the unseasonable warmth expected over the next 10+ days is certainly helping to keep a lid on the market, traders are more concerned with developments beyond the end of November as winter risk ramps up. For now, the setup for December looks very supportive of elevated heating needs, which is so far preventing any meaningful follow through from the recent reversal lower.

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