Natural Gas Market Note | 11.12.2025
Natural gas little changed as temperatures normalize.
The natural gas market was virtually unchanged today, with modest weakness on the front of the curve and moves of a penny or less beyond January. The balance-of-winter strip is still up sharply since last week and more than $0.55 per MMBtu above month-ago levels.
Price action has been interesting in recent weeks in that gains in the December contract have significantly outpaced the rest of the winter strip, namely February 2026. Since October 17, December has added about $0.80 per MMBtu compared to a roughly $0.55 gain for February. As a result, the Dec25-Feb26 spread has gone from -$0.15 to as high as +$0.15 as of yesterday. This curve shape is odd, particularly in a flush storage situation, as February objectively carries greater risk to the natural gas market than December.
This swing could be a result of speculative buying and/or short covering on the front of the curve. In any case, it suggests that the recent rally may not be entirely driven by market fundamentals, which are not as bullish as near-term forward pricing might suggest.
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