NYMEX natural gas futures ended the day mixed, with near-term contracts for delivery during the winter losing ground while deferred deliveries were slightly higher or flat on the day. The prompt-month December 2026 contract settled down $0.08 per MMBtu to end at $3.22, while the Balance of Winter 2026-27 strip (Dec-Mar) closed down $0.03 to $3.16.
Colder changes in near-term temperature forecasts have been one of the primary drivers of the recent move higher in winter futures prices. Those shifts, however, are far from “bullish” in that the current outlook is closer to normal for a few days in mid-November rather than well-above normal for the duration of the month. To that point, the most recent 8-14 day temperature outlook from the National Weather Service (below, right) shows a resumption of the mild temperature pattern during the second half of November.
Another data point providing additional support for the recent strength in futures prices has been daily production estimates provided by third-party vendors. Most of those estimates show production more than 6 Bcf per day below the highs seen in August, suggesting producers in the Appalachian Basin have continued to voluntarily curtail production amid very low spot pricing. In addition to the evolution of near-term temperature forecasts, market participants will likely continue to closely monitor daily production estimates, especially once spot pricing recovers from depressed levels.
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