NYMEX futures continued to push to fresh lows on Friday following Thursday’s brief reprieve from selling pressure. The November 2026 contract wrapped up its final full week of trading prior to expiration by giving up 16 cents to settle near $2.64 per MMBtu, down nearly 50 cents on the week. The full Winter 2026-27 strip was relatively stable in comparison but still lost 8 cents on the day to end the week at a fresh five-year low of $2.97 per MMBtu. Summer 2027 was unchanged, holding at its five-year low near $2.78 per MMBtu.
Market participants are now largely discounting the impact of the recent stretch of relatively light storage builds. Instead, the focus has shifted almost entirely to the decidedly bearish weather outlook, which shows much warmer-than-normal temperatures through at least early November. Beyond that, forecasters are increasingly converging on expectations for an overall warmer-than-normal winter. While these forecasts remain subject to change, the market recognizes that a mild winter would leave inventories with a substantial cushion heading into next summer.
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The shift from storage builds to the warmer-than-normal weather outlook as the main driver is the key point here, with the winter strip hitting a five-year low alongside the front month. A mild winter leaving a bigger inventory cushion into next summer is what the curve seems to be pricing.