The October 2026 NYMEX contract rallied on Monday to start the week, adding 6 cents to finish near $2.90 per MMBtu. The gains followed price action near the end of last week that saw the prompt-month contract attempt to trade lower before being buoyed ahead of settlement. Gains were confined to the very front of the curve, with Winter 2026-27 adding just a penny and deliveries through at least 2028 virtually flat on the day.
Temperature forecasts trended hotter over the weekend, adding significant population-weighted cooling degree days for the upcoming week. While anomalous heat during the second half of September is not nearly as impactful on energy needs across most of the country as what was observed earlier in the month, current outlooks are conducive to elevated power burn lingering late into the month. This will further stunt growth in storage inventories, likely taking 4.0 Tcf firmly off the table and reducing the odds of surpassing 3.9 Tcf prior to winter.
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