Natural Gas Market Note | 08.04.2026
Futures pricing declines sharply on milder forecasts.
Natural gas futures moved sharply lower on Tuesday, with losses concentrated at the front of the curve. The September 2026 contract fell $0.10 to settle near $2.68 per MMBtu, while Winter 2026–27 declined $0.08 to $3.47. Selling pressure moderated further out, with Winter 2027–28 down just $0.02 and Summer 2028 slipping only $0.01. Despite today’s decline, prices beyond 2027 remain generally flat to modestly higher over the past month.
The primary catalyst was a milder revision to the weather outlook. A period of very hot weather is still expected this weekend and into early next week, supporting elevated cooling demand in the near term. However, forecasts softened considerably across the Midwest and East beyond that window, reducing expectations for sustained heat through the middle of August and weighing most heavily on nearby contracts.
An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.