Natural Gas Market Note | 07.29.2026
Natural gas futures extend recent losses despite widespread heat.
August NYMEX gained modest ground on expiration day, settling 6 cents higher at $2.725 per MMBtu. Even with the late bounce, the contract posted the lowest monthly expiration since November 2024 and finished nearly 50 cents below the July contract’s final settlement. Winter prices also recovered from an early test of support near $3.50, with the Winter 2026–27 strip closing 5 cents higher at $3.56. Still, the broader curve remains under pressure, with most 2026 contracts down sharply over the past month.
Weather forecasts remain hot, particularly across Texas and the western U.S., but the market continues to show limited concern about elevated cooling demand. Attention now turns to Thursday’s storage report, where analysts expect a 38-Bcf injection for the week ended July 24. That would exceed the five-year average build of 26 Bcf and widen the storage surplus to 195 Bcf. Strong production and reduced LNG feedgas demand appear to be offsetting heavy power-sector gas burn, reinforcing the market’s view that supplies remain comfortable despite persistent summer heat.
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