Natural Gas Market Note | 07.02.2026
Natural gas heads into holiday weekend on a quiet note.
Natural gas futures edged lower on Thursday ahead of the three-day weekend. The August NYMEX contract traded in a tight 6-cent range, ultimately settling $0.02 lower at $3.20 per MMBtu. Price action was fairly consistent across the curve, with Winter 2026-27 finishing the week near $3.75 per MMBtu, within 8 cents of the multi-year lows traded in late May. The market ended lower on the week and was flat to lower compared to this point a month ago.
Thursday’s muted price action came against the backdrop of the hottest weather so far this year across key population centers. Natural gas demand from power generators exceeded 50 Bcf on Thursday, according to preliminary estimates, a threshold typically reserved for the hottest days each summer. Temperatures are expected to peak on Friday, but gas demand will likely be muted to some extent by the observance of Independence Day. From there, forecasts show temperatures moderating but maintaining a warmer-than-normal bias through the rest of the two-week period.
The EIA storage report showed an outsized build of 87 Bcf, which was the first since April to come in stronger than the same week in 2025. Inventories remain in a comfortable position heading into peak summer, but any prolonged bout of widespread heat could work to erode the surplus to the five-year average and increase bullish sentiment in the forward market.
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