Natural Gas Market Note | 06.29.2026
Futures retreat despite impending heat wave.
Natural gas prices moved sharply lower on Monday, with selling pressure concentrated at the front of the curve. The newly prompt August 2026 contract fell 10 cents to settle at $3.18 per MMBtu, while the balance of summer slipped by the same amount to $3.16. Winter 2026-27 was also weaker, falling 8 cents to $3.74, while longer-dated strips saw more modest losses. The move left most major strips lower on the day, week, and month, suggesting the market remains reluctant to break to the upside even as near-term demand risks continue to build.
That caution could be tested quickly as the most significant heat of the season moves into the forecast window. Early estimates show today’s generation demand already running roughly even with levels reached during the heat wave earlier this month, and temperatures are expected to climb further in the coming days. That should push power sector gas demand toward new seasonal highs, with the potential for record summer generation demand if the heat verifies as expected. So far, the futures market is focused on the expected moderation beyond the next 5 days, but a hotter or longer-lasting pattern could quickly change the sentiment.
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