Natural Gas Market Note | 05.13.2026
Futures give up early gains to finish nearly flat.
NYMEX natural gas futures were little changed on Wednesday, with the curve retreating from intraday highs established early in the day. The June 2026 contract was up nearly 10 cents at one point this morning, but the market trended steadily lower throughout the trading day, and the prompt contract finished with only modest gains. The Balance-of-Summer strip was flat on the day, while deliveries from November 2026 through March 2028 were down about $0.02 per MMBtu on average.
Today’s price action came amid a backdrop of mixed fundamental signals. On one hand, power generation demand for natural gas continues to outperform year-ago levels. This will be bolstered as a heat wave moves across the country over the next week, with consumption from this sector likely to hit season-to-date highs. Meanwhile, production has shown a downturn this week, with estimated volumes retreating back below 110 Bcf per day.
Reduced LNG export demand is helping to blunt the impact of higher power burn and lighter production, at least temporarily. With ongoing maintenance at several Gulf Coast terminals, feedgas volumes have recently retreated below 18 Bcf per day. However, this reduction is expected to be relatively short-lived, setting the market up for a summer of elevated power generation demand alongside record LNG export demand. Absent material production growth, this dynamic could lead to a shallower pace of injections over the course of the season.
Tomorrow’s storage report is expected to show a build near 87 Bcf, according to The Wall Street Journal’s survey of analysts. Responses ranged from builds of 77 Bcf to 96 Bcf, illustrating a degree of market uncertainty heading into the report following last week’s lower-than-expected figure. The consensus number comes in just above the five-year average of 84 Bcf for the same week, but is light compared to the 109-Bcf year-ago build.
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