Natural Gas Market Note | 05.07.2026
NYMEX futures end mixed after a bullish storage surprise.
Natural gas futures ended the day mixed following a lower-than-expected build in storage inventories as reported this morning by the EIA (Link). The front of the forward curve was higher on the day, with the prompt month June 2026 contract ending the day up $0.039 per MMBtu at $2.769, while the other Summer contracts also settled higher but to a less extent. The Winter 2026-27 strip was lower, along with Calendar 2027, while deferred deliveries settled close to unchanged.
The most important piece of fundamental data to hit the market today was the weekly natural gas storage report, which showed a 63-Bcf build into storage. While that number was not dramatically out of line from a historical perspective (as measured by the 2021 - 2025 average for the same week), it was materially lower than pre-report estimates. Moreover, from a weather-adjusted perspective, it was the tightest storage build since the week ending April 3, 2026, based on a model using population-weighted temperatures and the 2024 & 2025 weekly storage changes.
Looking ahead, the market will likely be focused on whether this storage miss was a one-off or a harbinger of a more durable shift in the underlying fundamental balance.
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