Natural Gas Market Note | 04.08.2026
Natural gas futures sharply lower amid broader correction in energy.
NYMEX natural gas pushed sharply to the downside on Wednesday as energy markets reacted to an announced ceasefire in Iran. The May 2026 contract fell about 15 cents to settle near $2.72 per MMBtu. This marks the lowest daily closing price for any prompt-month natural gas contract since August, with the May contract ending the day near five-year lows. Losses were less pronounced further out the curve, particularly beyond March 2027.
As discussed often in this space, the fundamental impact of the conflict in Iran on the U.S. natural gas market is extremely limited. However, periods of broader market volatility have influenced sentiment in the gas market. With no new domestic fundamental drivers emerging on Wednesday, the sharp selloff across the crude oil complex appeared to have a similar effect on natural gas, with benchmark futures posting the steepest losses in a week. Still, the roughly 5% decline in prompt-month natural gas was modest compared to the 15%+ drop in nearby WTI futures.
Tomorrow’s EIA storage report is expected to show another net build in inventories. The Wall Street Journal survey of analysts indicated a consensus forecast for a 44-Bcf injection into underground storage, with responses ranging from builds of 27 to 54 Bcf. If the consensus forecast proves accurate, the surplus to the five-year average would increase by 30 Bcf, growing from last week’s 54 Bcf to 84 Bcf.
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