Natural Gas Market Note | 04.07.2026
Futures edge higher in continued low-volatility trade.
NYMEX natural gas futures pushed modestly higher on Tuesday, recouping a portion of the previous week’s losses. The prompt-month May 2026 contract settled about 6 cents higher on the day near $2.87 per MMBtu, roughly in line with week-ago levels but still down significantly over the past month. Gains extended through Winter 2026–27 and were less pronounced for Summer 2027 and beyond.
Today’s gains may have been driven by a brief cooldown across key population centers, leading to a bump in residential and commercial consumption. Some models also indicated a notable drop in production on Tuesday, with estimated volumes falling below the 110-Bcf-per-day threshold. While this data is likely to be revised higher in the coming days, it serves as a reminder of how sensitive the balance can be and the importance of maintaining strong production levels to preserve market stability.
Barring a sustained lull in domestic supply, near-term fundamentals will continue to be driven by a return to mild weather over the next two days, with those conditions expected to persist deep into April.
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