Natural Gas Market Note | 04.06.2026
Quiet trade continues coming out of the holiday weekend.
Natural gas prices ended virtually flat across the curve, as the market continued to trade with low volatility. The prompt-month May 2026 contract finished the day about a penny higher, trading within a range of roughly $0.10 per MMBtu. Contracts further out the curve were little changed as the market enters the shoulder season amid mixed fundamental signals.
Temperature forecasts remain overtly bearish in the near term, with warmer-than-normal weather expected to blanket most of the U.S. While early cooling demand is beginning to emerge in southern markets, most key population centers remain exposed to lingering heating needs. However, the current outlook is conducive to limited weather-driven demand overall and should support strong storage builds in the weeks ahead.
At the same time, supply concerns are being driven by stagnant domestic production, record LNG export demand, and reduced imports from Canada. Despite near-record production levels, this dynamic is resulting in a year-over-year decline in net supply. While not an immediate concern given current weather conditions, the balance could tighten as cooling demand ramps into the summer absent a meaningful increase in production. This may help limit downside across the curve.
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