Natural Gas Market Note | 03.31.2026
Nearby futures rally early but fade to flat by the end of the day.
Natural gas futures looked poised for gains early in Tuesday’s trading session, but the prompt-month contract was unable to hold near $3.00 per MMBtu and ultimately faded back to finish flat on the day near $2.88 per MMBtu. Summer 2026 ended with a 5-cent loss, settling at $3.17 per MMBtu. Meanwhile, the Winter 2026–27 strip posted more meaningful losses, giving up $0.13 per MMBtu to finish just below $4.20 per MMBtu.
With little changed in near-term domestic fundamentals, the disproportionate losses for next winter deliveries are noteworthy. While the magnitude of these swings still pales in comparison to what has been observed in global LNG benchmarks and across the crude oil complex, Winter 2026–27 has been moving more closely with prevailing market sentiment surrounding the war in Iran than the front of the curve. Tuesday saw oil markets ease from recent highs and equities rally as talks between the U.S. and Iran appeared to be progressing. Despite the lack of assurances, or even concrete signs of progress, any sliver of optimism has shown an ability to move capital markets significantly.
The Winter 2026–27 strip traded as high as $4.76 per MMBtu on March 19, but has since reset into the sub-$4.30 trading range that defined most of the price action in February.
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