Natural Gas Market Note | 03.23.2026
Prompt-month gas retreats back below $3.00.
Benchmark U.S. natural gas futures traded sharply lower on Monday. The April 2026 contract settled near $2.89 per MMBtu, down about 20 cents on the day. This marks the lowest daily close for that contract since its first two days at the front of the curve in late February. Losses were spread relatively evenly across the curve through Winter 2026–27, with deliveries beyond next March posting only marginal declines.
Optimism surrounding a potential end to the conflict with Iran drove energy prices lower across the board, with natural gas following suit. After fears of further escalation over the weekend abated, crude oil prices plunged. WTI fell nearly $10 per barrel to retreat below $90, while the more global Brent crude contract dropped by more than $12 to fall back below the $100-per-barrel benchmark.
While U.S. natural gas is not statistically correlated with crude oil, large moves in the oil market can often drive sentiment in natural gas, as illustrated by some of the recent price swings. The market is currently in the process of discounting risk, but any indication that today’s optimism is unfounded could quickly usher bullish sentiment back into the fray.
Domestically, weather forecasts are overtly bearish for the next two weeks. With widespread warmer-than-normal temperatures expected through early April, U.S. natural gas demand should remain limited as the market transitions into injection season in the coming weeks.
An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.