Natural Gas Market Note | 03.10.2026
Futures continue to unwind in the wake of Sunday's overnight spike.
Natural gas prices finished lower for the second consecutive day, with the front of the curve ending Tuesday back near $3.00 per MMBtu. The prompt-month April 2026 contract settled at $3.02, down about $0.10 per MMBtu on the day. Overall, futures through Winter 2026–27 ended Tuesday close to yesterday afternoon’s intraday lows.
Natural gas appears to still be taking some cues from the crude complex, with benchmark forwards trading in a similar pattern since the start of the week. Prompt-month WTI finished the day lower near $84 per barrel but well off the intraday lows below $77. It seems that energy markets are cautiously optimistic that the end of the conflict in Iran may be in sight, absent any overt escalations since the start of the week. However, this remains a very volatile situation subject to change at any moment.
While short-term swings in the U.S. natural gas market are mirroring shifts in sentiment surrounding the direction of the conflict, this remains a domestically driven market. From that standpoint, conditions remain mostly bearish.
Domestic production remains near record highs above 110 Bcf per day, and demand is very much on the downtrend into the spring shoulder season. We’ve seen some colder shifts in near-term temperature forecasts, which could lead to more robust March storage draws than initially expected, but we do not expect these weather patterns to have a material impact on the overall inventory situation. Storage levels are on track to round out the winter near five-year average levels.
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