Natural Gas Market Note | 03.06.2026
Futures finish the week on a strong note with no end in sight to Iran conflict.
Natural gas posted its strongest daily increase of the week, picking up momentum from yesterday’s rally. The April 2026 contract traded as high as $3.28 midday before settling off the intraday highs to round out the week just below $3.20 per MMBtu, up 18 cents on the day and about 33 cents from last Friday’s close. While today’s gains were strongest closer to the front of the curve, weekly increases were most pronounced in Winter 2026-27, which is up more than $0.40 per MMBtu on the week.
Market sentiment continues to be underpinned by the major rally in global energy prices, but the increases in NYMEX natural gas are slim in comparison. The U.S. market remains mostly insulated from any fundamental impact of an extended supply crunch, helping to limit the impact on domestic futures. With nearby TTF and JKM futures up more than 60% on the week, the roughly 10% increase in April 2026 NYMEX natural gas looks tame.
Domestic fundamentals remain mostly bearish, but we have seen some cooler revisions to near-term temperature outlooks that might lead to ongoing net withdrawals deeper into March than initially expected. Even with the revisions, population-weighted HDDs are not forecast to exceed normal levels at any point during the month. As a result, inventories are not expected to decline materially from the 1.9-Tcf level reported on Thursday by the EIA for the week ended February 27.
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