Natural Gas Market Note | 03.05.2026
Winter 2026-27 continues to outpace the rest of the curve.
Natural gas gained ground after a choppy trading session on Thursday. Prices were lower for most of the day, with the prompt-month contract bouncing back and forth in a tight range below $3.00 per MMBtu. However, in the hour or so before settlement, buying interest picked up and pushed prices to settle at their intraday highs. The April 2026 contract finished the day just above the key $3.00 level, up $0.09 per MMBtu on the day.
Notably, the Winter 2026–27 strip continued to outperform the rest of the forward curve, gaining 17 cents today and sitting 34 cents higher than week-ago levels at $4.39 per MMBtu. This strip is still well off its January highs above $4.70, but the market seems to be pricing in additional risk for next winter amid heightened uncertainty.
Prices barely responded to this morning’s EIA storage report. The data showed an outsized 132-Bcf draw that came in stronger than market expectations. While this was bullish on the surface, the market is more focused on the coming weeks, which should show very light withdrawals or even net injections. At just under 1.9 Tcf, it looks unlikely that inventories will be drawn down much further from here.
While the crude oil market has continued to rally sharply in relation to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global natural gas benchmarks have settled down in recent days. The market is holding onto most of the early-week gains but now appears to be in a wait-and-see mode with regard to the fate of LNG supply in the coming weeks or months. However, the risk still appears to be very much to the upside, with no end to the conflict in sight.
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