Natural Gas Market Note | 03.02.2026
Futures push higher as bullish global sentiment hits U.S. market.
Natural gas futures posted their most substantial gains in weeks on Monday, as the April 2026 contract added 10 cents to settle at $2.96 per MMBtu. The prompt-month contract briefly traded above $3.00 per MMBtu resistance this morning but was unable to establish sustained upside momentum above that level. Gains for Winter 2026–27 were slightly more pronounced than those observed closer to the front of the curve, with pricing little changed beyond March 2027.
Domestically, price increases were supported by some cooler weather in the 11–14-day outlook. According to several models, the Upper Midwest and parts of the East are expected to see a return to cooler-than-normal temperatures around mid-March. While this would not be conducive to a major spike in heating demand, it could extend meaningful storage draws deeper into March than indicated by last week’s forecasts.
The biggest headlines were more global in nature, as the Qatari government moved to shut down a major LNG export facility in response to Iranian drone strikes on the nation. This news sent an already jittery European market into panic mode, with the benchmark TTF contract rallying as much as 50% during the trading session. The market is on edge amid fears that the conflict involving Iran could lead to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, which would have a drastic impact on European and Asian LNG supply.
With U.S. terminals already producing LNG very close to capacity, even a major global shortage would likely have little to no near-term carryover impact on domestic market fundamentals. However, as illustrated in 2022, if the global market continues to rally, extreme bullish sentiment could spill into the U.S. market and exacerbate upside price risk. Today’s modest increase in U.S. futures, against the backdrop of the major global spike, suggests that—so far—cooler heads are prevailing amid mostly bearish shoulder-season conditions.
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