Natural Gas Market Note | 02.26.2026
Prices continue to edge lower amid ongoing low volatility.
The April 2026 contract rolled to the front of the curve on Thursday, opening at a 7-cent discount to yesterday’s March contract expiration and trading modestly lower on the day. The Summer 2026 strip drifted $0.03 per MMBtu lower to finish near $3.18 per MMBtu, while the rest of the curve was virtually flat on the day.
The market had seemingly already built in the new storage data from the EIA, which showed a net withdrawal of 52 Bcf for the week ended February 20. Although this had a drastic impact on the inventory situation — essentially wiping out the deficit to the five-year average and flipping stocks to a surplus to 2025 — the news was largely shrugged off by market participants.
The focus now shifts to the upcoming shoulder season and mild temperature forecasts that are set to define the next two weeks. With little in the way of fundamental risk on the horizon and production maintaining its record pace, the path of least resistance appears to be to the downside.
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