Natural Gas Market Note | 02.25.2026
March futures edge higher into expiration, closing the book on winter futures.
The March 2026 contract rolled off the board after another quiet day of trading, edging modestly higher to expire at $2.969 per MMBtu. This marks the lowest NYMEX contract expiration since October and brings the Winter 2025/26 average to $4.583 per MMBtu. That average, of course, was dramatically influenced by February’s elevated $7.46 per MMBtu expiration. Even so, the $4.583 average winter settlement is the highest since the 2021–22 season and the second highest since 2010.
April will roll to the front of the curve tomorrow at a discount of about 10 cents to the March expiration. With winter’s end coming firmly into focus and no bullish weather developments in the near-term forecast, there are no clear catalysts for volatility spikes on the horizon.
Tomorrow’s storage report is expected to show an especially light draw for this time of year. The Wall Street Journal’s survey of analysts indicates an average expectation of 53 Bcf, with estimates ranging from 38 to 73 Bcf. If consensus proves correct, it would nearly erase the deficit relative to the five-year average and flip inventories back to a surplus versus year-ago levels. The corresponding week in 2025 was marked by widespread cold and saw a 252-Bcf withdrawal.
An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.