Natural Gas Market Note | 02.23.2026
Futures give up early gains to finish lower on the day.
The natural gas market looked to be staging a recovery early in today’s trading session, but the curve ultimately finished mostly lower on the day. Prices gapped higher at the open on Sunday evening coming out of the weekend. This was likely in response to a quick burst of cold that impacted key population centers and included a major snowstorm in the Northeast. However, the demand spike looks to be very short-lived, with most outlets predicting a quick return to warmer-than-normal temperatures in the coming days.
Prices slid lower throughout the day on Monday, with the March 2026 contract ultimately finishing just below $2.99 per MMBtu. This marks the lowest daily settlement for that contract since January 16, and could be an indication that the dam of support surrounding $3.00 per MMBtu is in danger of being breached. March was down just 6 cents on the day, but settled about $0.26 per MMBtu off the intraday highs.
Monday is the coldest on a population-weighted basis in more than two weeks, with HDDs matching levels experienced at the tail end of the major cold snap that started in mid-January and lingered into early February. After one more day of frigid weather, HDDs are forecast to fall off sharply beginning on Wednesday, with warmer-than-normal temperatures expected to stick around deep into March.
These outlooks are definitely subject to change, but as the weeks pass, the risk of major winter weather on a widespread basis is becoming less of a concern. Instead, the market seems to be fully focused on the upcoming shoulder period and the storage trajectory, which will likely leave inventories near average levels heading into the injection season.
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