Natural Gas Market Note | 02.13.2026
March futures recover from early losses to post a modest gain ahead of the weekend.
Friday was another relatively quiet day of trading in the natural gas market. The March 2026 contract looked poised for losses this morning, pushing as low as $3.11 per MMBtu. However, prices firmed through most of the session to finish near $3.24 per MMBtu, up about 3 cents on the day. Beyond the prompt month, price action was fairly subdued, with Winter 2026–27 losing $0.02 per MMBtu, while other seasonal strips through Winter 2027-28 finished the day unchanged.
Temperature anomalies are expected to moderate in the Upper Midwest and East as the month progresses, but normal temperatures trend higher at this point in the season. This dynamic supports a decline in population-weighted heating degree days (HDDs) from today through the middle of next week. While HDDs are poised to firm slightly thereafter, no days in the forecast are expected to come in materially cooler than normal on a population-weighted basis.
Weather-related demand is expected to remain subdued into late February, significantly diminishing winter risk for the balance of the peak season. Storage inventories, which fell into a deficit versus last year and the five-year average during the recent cold event, should recover in the coming weeks and finish the season near historical benchmarks.
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