Natural Gas Market Note | 02.04.2026
Prices continue to push higher, but the curve remains down significantly on the week.
Natural gas futures continued to rebound on Wednesday, with the March 2026 contract adding 15 cents to settle at $3.47 per MMBtu. That contract is still down more than $0.95 per MMBtu from last Friday’s high, as bullish market sentiment has eased considerably from the fever pitch reached last week. Gains were less pronounced further out the curve. Summer 2026 increased by $0.09 to finish just below $3.60 per MMBtu, with Winter 2026–27 rising by a similar margin.
Domestic production continues to recover from last week’s freeze-offs, but volumes remain down from pre-event highs. Estimated output was running consistently between 111 and 112 Bcf per day during the first half of January before dropping as low as 96 Bcf per day during the most intense and widespread cold. Preliminary estimates show production rebounding to near 110 Bcf on Wednesday, the highest level since January 20.
Consensus expectations for tomorrow’s storage report reflect a record withdrawal from inventories. The Wall Street Journal’s survey of analysts came in at an average of 374 Bcf, easily eclipsing the previous all-time record draw of 359 Bcf from January 2018. Estimates ranged from 358 to 388 Bcf, with even the most conservative forecasts calling for a near-record withdrawal.
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