June will roll to the front of the forward curve at a slight premium to the May expiration, but that contract has shown weakness in after-hours trading. With temperature forecasts for the next two weeks showing ongoing soft demand conditions, near-term fundamentals remain bearish. However, cooling season is approaching, and it is only a matter of time before we see substantial air conditioning load emerge. Net natural gas supply remains lower than year-ago levels, and power generation demand is running higher than in 2025. As summer demand ramps up, this tightness could start showing up in weekly injection numbers.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

With ongoing shoulder-season weather and no major heat waves in the near-term forecast, the market continues to drift without any major catalysts. Sagging domestic production and record LNG exports would be more significant issues if weather-related demand were not so low. Residential and commercial demand still has further to fall before reaching summer minimums, while power generation load has yet to pick up substantially. For now, the market appears content to mark time until either summer cooling demand emerges or tighter supply trends begin to show up more clearly in the storage data.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

- Natural gas futures sold off sharply to round out the week after six straight sessions of modest gains, with the prompt-month contract falling to $2.52 per MMBtu.

- The 103-Bcf storage build was the largest ever for this early in the season, expanding surpluses versus both year-ago inventories and the five-year average.

- Mild weather continues to suppress broad demand, with only residual heating load in northern markets and limited early cooling demand nationally.

- Forward power prices generally moved higher across most major U.S. markets, supported by summer risk premiums and expectations for load growth.

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The substantial two-day decline comes following an week-plus period of very low volatility and marginal daily gains. With heating demand now moving fully out of the picture, and mild weather on tap for at least the next two weeks, it appears again that the near-term path of least resistance is pointing to the downside.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

Today’s storage report weighed on the market. The 103-Bcf build was the largest on record for this early in the season and reflected a week of very low weather-related demand. Consumption across all domestic sectors was near seasonal minimums during the report week, offsetting any impact from weaker net supply.

Domestic production has been depressed compared to recent highs due to seasonal maintenance as LNG export facilities have continued to operate near capacity. This dynamic has so far been masked by historically mild April temperature patterns, but if net supply continues to run south of year-ago levels deeper into the summer, it will start to have a material impact on the pace of storage growth.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

This morning’s EIA report showed a historically large 103-Bcf build into underground inventories, marking the earliest point in the year that a triple-digit storage build has been recorded in the 33-year history of the weekly report. The injection came in stronger than both the year-ago and five-year average builds, widening the surplus to each benchmark. This marks the fourth consecutive week that storage has increased at a faster pace than the five-year average. On March 20, inventories held just a 3-Bcf cushion, but in the four weeks since, that surplus has expanded to 137 Bcf.

For the second time in the past three weeks, the EIA data included a revision to previous reports. The revised data effectively reduced working stocks in the Mountain Region by 10 Bcf dating back to August 2025. While this lowered the reported volume of gas available from underground storage, the implied flow balance over the period since the revision is unchanged.

This does not represent a material change in the storage situation.

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Cooler temperature forecasts for the remainder of April are conducive to lingering modest heating needs in northern market areas, but overall energy demand remains tepid. If widespread cool anomalies extend into mid-May, they will become overtly bearish by limiting early cooling demand across virtually the entire country.

Tomorrow’s storage report is expected to show by far the largest injection of the season. The market is anticipating a build of 94 Bcf, according to the consensus of the The Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Responses came in a relatively wide range, spanning from a 62-Bcf build on the low end to the most aggressive estimate calling for an injection of 115 Bcf. The consensus build would further widen the surplus to the five-year average and year-ago inventories.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

Even though daily gains have been muted and price action has been calm, the market has moved steadily higher over the past week. Today marked the fifth consecutive increase for the prompt-month contract, which has added about $0.10 per MMBtu over that stretch. Overall, it appears the market is still looking for direction against a backdrop of mostly bearish near-term fundamentals and tightening underlying supply.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

Residential and commercial demand picked up over the weekend, coming in about double recent lows, but consumption from these sectors has already started to fade as temperature patterns normalize. Forecasts for the next two weeks call for a cooler-than-normal bias across most of the country, with anomalies more conducive to limiting early cooling needs than driving lingering heating load.

Contracts across the curve remain materially lower than month-ago levels, but price action over the past week indicates that downside momentum is running out. For now, the market appears to be in a holding pattern, waiting for more clarity on summer weather expectations and to see whether more substantial production growth begins to emerge.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

- Natural gas futures were little changed overall last week, with the prompt-month contract confined to a narrow trading range while Winter 2026-27 slipped back below $4.00 per MMBtu.

- A 59-Bcf storage build further expanded inventory surpluses to both year-ago levels and the five-year average during the first full week of April.

- Mild weather is expected to keep near-term demand subdued, limiting both late-season heating load and meaningful early cooling demand into late April.

- Forward power prices moved lower across all major U.S. markets last week, pressured by softer natural gas pricing and muted shoulder-season demand.

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Futures pricing edged higher through 2027 and was virtually unchanged for 2028 delivery. As the prompt-month contract ended the week marginally higher, the Winter 2026-27 strip finished down $0.05 per MMBtu, trading below $4.00 per MMBtu for the first time since before the January cold snap. With mild weather on tap, and assuming no major catalyst alters market sentiment, we would expect low-volatility trade to continue into next week.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

Natural gas futures traded in an unusually tight range this week, with limited volatility despite a near-term backdrop that remains broadly bearish. Mild two-week weather forecasts and a stronger-than-average 59 Bcf storage injection point to healthy spring inventory growth in the weeks ahead. However, the market appears to be finding support as U.S. production remains flat rather than growing, while LNG exports look to climb and structurally tighten the balance. That combination is creating longer-term upside risk later this summer and into next winter, even as current fundamentals remain soft.

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Today’s gains came despite a relatively strong storage build. The 59-Bcf injection announced for the first full week of April came in stronger than historical benchmarks, widening the surplus to last year and the five-year average. The lack of any meaningful continued downside momentum in recent days could suggest that bearish sentiment is running out, even as temperature patterns are forecast to remain mild for the next two weeks.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

The EIA reported a net increase of 59 Bcf in underground natural gas inventories for the first full week of April. The build came in stronger than the same week in 2025, as well as the five-year average, increasing the surplus to both benchmarks. Every region saw a net injection for the week, with the most significant build observed in the South Central, where Salt storage increased by 17 Bcf and Nonsalt by 15 Bcf. Mountain and Pacific inventories maintain a historically wide gap above average levels, while all other areas are much closer to historical norms.

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Tomorrow’s EIA storage report is expected to show a similar build to the previous week. The Wall Street Journal survey of analysts showed a consensus view for a 51-Bcf build, with responses ranging from 33- to 69-Bcf additions. The consensus build would increase the surplus to the five-year average from 87 to 100 Bcf.

Storage injections are likely to ramp up further starting with next week’s report, which covers the week ending Friday, April 17. Inventories are likely to grow at a healthy rate through at least the end of April due to tepid weather-related demand across most of the country.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

The primary domestic driver remains the bearish near-term temperature outlook. With mild weather forecast through the end of April, the market is unconcerned about an early wave of cooling demand, while any substantial heating load is firmly in the rearview mirror. Until the market observes a change in weather or sees a tangible impact from tightening underlying supply, the path of least resistance will likely remain sideways to lower.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

Natural gas was continues to be mostly insulated from broader energy market volatility. The prompt-month contract traded in a range of less than 11 cents, or about 4%, from the daily low to the daily high. Meanwhile, benchmark oil futures traded in a range of more than 8% between $97 and $106 per barrel as the market faced uncertainty about supply moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Temperature patterns in the U.S. are expected to remain bearish for the foreseeable future. With warmer-than-normal temperatures expected to blanket most of the eastern half of the country, heating needs will be minimal as spring progresses. The South, which is beginning to see growing cooling demand at this point in the year, is forecast to remain relatively mild, putting a cap on early-summer cooling needs for now.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

- Natural gas futures extended their decline last week, with the prompt-month contract trading near $2.65 per MMBtu and the balance-of-summer strip testing the $3.00 level at multi-year lows.

- A 50-Bcf storage build marked the first week of the traditional injection season, with inventories maintaining modest surpluses to both year-ago levels and the five-year average.

- Warm weather is expected to keep demand limited in the near term, reinforcing a soft setup as the market moves deeper into the shoulder season.

- Net supply remains below last year’s pace, as strong LNG exports and weaker Canadian imports continue to offset elevated production and tighten the underlying balance.

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Market participants continue to shrug off any signs of underlying fundamental tightness to instead focus on bearish near-term temperature outlooks. The next two weeks are expected to feature mild weather across the vast majority of the U.S., which will be limiting of weather-related energy needs. This has led to soft cash pricing across most key delivery hubs and is weighing on nearby futures.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.