Power generation demand is expected to decline in the coming days after reaching new seasonal highs above 46 Bcf per day this week. Beginning tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to turn much milder following the brief heat wave during the second half of this week. This pattern change has helped ease the bullish momentum that developed last month and allowed the market to settle into a holding pattern. Market participants will be watching for signs of another round of major heat in the coming weeks, but for now, near-term forecasts are largely unsupportive.

LNG export demand rebounded at the end of the week, with estimated feedgas deliveries to the nation’s liquefaction terminals exceeding 19 Bcf per day on Friday. Most active facilities appear to be returning from maintenance-related outages, although the nation’s largest terminal, Sabine Pass, remains well below its demonstrated capacity.

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Today’s storage report added to the bearish tone, with the EIA announcing a 108-Bcf injection for the week ended June 5. The build came in above consensus expectations and the five-year average of 95 Bcf, expanding the storage surplus versus that benchmark to 151 Bcf while leaving inventories roughly in line with year-ago levels. Compared with the prior week’s 95-Bcf injection, the report suggests the fundamental balance loosened by nearly 2 Bcf per day. It was the largest weekly build of the season so far and pointed to weaker natural gas consumption than preliminary estimates had implied, potentially reflecting stronger-than-expected wind and solar generation.

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This morning’s storage report showed a 108-Bcf build that came in above consensus market expectations and well above the five-year average build of 95 Bcf. The announced injection for the week ended June 5 expanded the surplus to the five-year average to 151 Bcf while keeping inventories virtually on par with year-ago levels. Stocks increased by 110 Bcf during the corresponding week last year. The cushion to the five-year average is back near its April highs, with storage growth largely keeping pace with that benchmark over the past six weeks.

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With temperatures warming across the populous East in the coming days, we expect power generation demand to reach new season-to-date highs above 45 Bcf per day. Peak loads across eastern power markets are also expected to establish new high-water marks for the summer before temperatures moderate considerably during the 6–10-day period, lowering energy demand considerably.

Tomorrow’s storage report is expected to show a larger build than the previous week, according to The Wall Street Journal’s survey of analysts. Consensus forecasts center on a 100-Bcf build, with responses ranging from 90 to 116 Bcf. If the consensus estimate materializes, stocks would add 5 Bcf to the surplus versus the five-year average while expanding the deficit to year-ago levels by 10 Bcf. This would mark the seventh consecutive week in which inventory growth has lagged the comparable week in 2025.

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Fundamentally, there was not much new for the market to digest. The next few days still look hot across the East, which should keep power generation demand well supported in the near term. However, forecasts continue to lean toward a much milder pattern beyond that initial heat, especially across the middle of the country. That shift has helped keep the market from continuing higher, with traders still waiting for stronger seasonal weather signals to help dictate near-term price direction.

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Today’s price action comes ahead of the most significant heat so far this season moving through the Midwest and East in the coming days. Power generation demand is expected to hit new summer-to-date highs later this week alongside unseasonably hot weather across key population centers. However, unlike last week’s outlooks, which suggested heat would stick around in the wake of this event, revised forecasts now show a much milder pattern taking shape across the middle of the country beyond the next five days. This has led to a reframing of demand expectations for mid-June and could support stronger storage growth deeper into the month.

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- Natural gas futures gave back some of the prior week’s rally, though contracts beyond summer remained relatively steady.

- The EIA reported a 95-Bcf storage injection, flipping inventories to a slight deficit versus year-ago levels.

- The most meaningful heat so far this season is expected in the coming days, with power burn likely to reach fresh 2026 highs.

- LNG exports remain constrained by maintenance, but feedgas demand is still running well above year-ago levels.

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The move lower came despite the market still staring down the most significant heat of the season so far next week. Forecasts softened slightly compared to Thursday’s outlook, which likely helped take some of the urgency out of the rally, but temperatures are still expected to run warm enough across key population centers to push cooling demand meaningfully higher. Power generation demand has already been running near the strongest levels of the season and should climb further as next week’s heat arrives.

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Natural gas prices remained choppy this week, with summer futures finding support from the season’s most significant heat so far, but still running into resistance. The latest 95-Bcf storage build kept inventories healthy versus the five-year average, but flipped stocks back to a slight year-over-year deficit as weekly builds continue to trail 2025 levels. With power burn expected to climb sharply, LNG feedgas likely to recover, and production still moving mostly sideways near 110–111 Bcf per day, the market is increasingly focused on whether summer storage growth will be strong enough to get inventories to a safe peak before winter.

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The rally was supported by a warmer shift in the forecast, with outlooks now showing more significant heat across key consuming regions than yesterday’s model runs. The change increases the likelihood of stronger cooling demand and elevated power burn as the market moves deeper into June. If current forecasts come to fruition, the near-term weather setup should yield the highest power generation demand of the summer so far.

Today’s storage report also helped support pricing. The EIA announced a 95-Bcf injection for the final full week of May, which was well shy of the year-ago build of 119 Bcf and also below the five-year average of 101 Bcf. Inventories have now erased the mid-April surplus to last year and sit modestly below year-ago levels for the first time since February.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

The EIA announced a 95-Bcf net injection into U.S. storage inventories for the final full week of May. This marked the sixth consecutive week that the storage build lagged the year-ago benchmark, with inventories erasing the 142-Bcf surplus from mid-April and now sitting 3 Bcf below 2025 levels. This is the first time since February that stocks have been at a deficit to year-ago levels. Meanwhile, the surplus to the five-year average has held generally steady over that same stretch. Today’s build came in 6 Bcf shy of that benchmark, narrowing the surplus modestly to 138 Bcf.

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Temperature forecasts continue to favor widespread warmer-than-normal anomalies beginning in the next several days and stretching beyond mid-month. While no major heat waves appear to be on the horizon, current outlooks are conducive to elevated air-conditioning needs across much of the U.S., which should continue to support strong power burn for natural gas.

Tomorrow’s storage report is expected to show the third triple-digit build of the season. The Wall Street Journal’s survey of analysts showed consensus expectations for a build of 105 Bcf, which would be the strongest of the season to date. The responses came in an especially wide range, spanning from 91 to 131 Bcf, indicating some market uncertainty heading into the weekly EIA report.

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Weather forecasts were little changed overnight, with above-normal temperatures still expected across key areas but without the kind of intense heat that would materially tighten balances in the near term. That leaves market dynamics mostly unchanged, as warmer weather is supportive, but not yet hot enough to drive a major move higher. For now, the curve remains stronger since this point last week, with strong seasonal support likely helping keep pricing propped up as peak summer approaches.

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The rest of the curve was more stable. Winter 2026–27 slipped just a penny on the day but remains up 14 cents on the week, while Winter 2027–28 actually added a penny and continues to hold near $4.09 per MMBtu. That split reinforces the recent theme of near-term volatility around summer weather and prompt-month positioning, while the market continues to preserve a meaningful premium in the winter strips.

Weather forecasts were little changed from Friday, with no obvious fundamental catalyst behind the move lower. Temperatures are starting to warm across key consuming regions, which should begin to lift cooling demand as the market moves deeper into June. Given the recent rally across the front of the curve, today’s weakness looks more like a near-term correction than a meaningful shift in the fundamental backdrop.

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- Natural gas futures rallied sharply as July took over as prompt month, with summer pricing pushing further above $3.00 per MMBtu.

- The EIA reported a 92-Bcf storage injection, slightly below the five-year average and well below last year’s build for the same week.

- LNG exports are recovering from seasonal maintenance and should move closer to demonstrated capacity levels as outages wind down.

- Weather is turning more supportive as normal cooling demand ramps into June, though the latest forecast still lacks a major heat event across key demand regions.

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Summer contracts finished the month meaningfully higher, with July up about 35 cents and the remainder of the season up about 28 cents, while deferred strips were flat to slightly lower. Winter 2026–27 slipped about 2 cents on the month, and 2027 and 2028 each finished modestly lower. The market continues to treat the recent bullish shift as a near-term summer issue rather than a full-curve repricing.

Weather remains the main driver heading into June. Forecasts are setting up for a warmer shift across the East, which should help lift cooling demand after a stretch of milder conditions across major population centers. Texas, however, still looks to be spared from significant heat in the near term, limiting the upside risk for power burn.

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Natural gas futures regained bullish momentum this week as the June contract expired near $3.04 per MMBtu and July continued higher after rolling onto the front of the curve. While near-term forecasts still lack major heat across key demand centers, normal temperatures are rising quickly into summer, LNG maintenance appears to be easing, and power generation demand is expected to strengthen in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, storage inventories continue to lose ground to last year, and Pinebrook’s supply-and-demand outlook points to growing risk that stocks could fall below both 2025 levels and the five-year average before winter.

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The move came as near-term weather forecasts trended modestly warmer since yesterday, helping revive bullish sentiment after recent weakness. Today’s storage report came in about in line with expectations, showing a 92-Bcf injection that continued to narrow the surplus to year-ago levels. Stocks were 142 Bcf above the corresponding 2025 level as recently as mid-April, but that surplus has now narrowed for five consecutive weeks to just 21 Bcf.

The build also reflected a tighter balance than the prior week. Strong power generation demand early in the report period helped offset otherwise mild weather and ongoing seasonal maintenance at several LNG export terminals. With power burn showing an early ability to spike during periods of heat, the market appears increasingly sensitive to even modest warmer shifts in the forecast.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.

The EIA announced a 92-Bcf storage injection this morning, which continued to narrow the surplus to year-ago levels and also came in below the five-year average for the same week. Stocks were 142 Bcf above corresponding 2025 levels as recently as April 10, but that surplus has now narrowed for five consecutive weeks to just 21 Bcf as of today’s report. The surplus relative to the five-year average has seen minor fluctuations over that same stretch, but today’s announced injection fell 5 Bcf shy of that benchmark.

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Price action was less dramatic beyond the expiring contract. The balance of summer strip added about 9 cents on the day, while Winter 2026-27 gained only 2 cents and remains down about 14 cents from week-ago levels. Calendar-year strips further out the curve were mostly flat to slightly higher on the day, but generally remain lower compared to last week.

There was not a major shift in the weather outlook, although Texas did trend warmer in the 6-10 day forecast window. That may have helped support nearby contracts, but with today’s move concentrated around expiration, it is difficult to separate weather-driven buying from routine expiration-day noise. July’s first few sessions as prompt month should provide a cleaner read near-term market sentiment.

An archive of Daily Natural Gas Market Notes can be found here.